參議院席次回測
柱狀顯示民主黨實際席次，圓點顯示預測平均，菱形顯示各州預測勝方加總的席次。線段為 80% 預測區間。
外觀
歷屆選舉
查看各場選舉的預測得票率、推估區間與勝選機率變化。
51.0%民主黨 · Robert P. Casey Jr. · 勝選機率 67.2%
80% 校準區間 64.0–72.0%
支持率區間 47.6–54.3%
80% 校準區間 64.0–72.0%
支持率區間 47.6–54.3%
49.0%共和黨 · Dave McCormick · 勝選機率 32.8%
80% 校準區間 28.0–36.0%
支持率區間 45.7–52.4%
80% 校準區間 28.0–36.0%
支持率區間 45.7–52.4%
81 / 32納入的民調／機構
預測得票率
折線顯示各日期的預測得票率，陰影為 80% 區間，點線為最終得票率。
勝選機率
折線顯示校準後勝選機率；區間反映歷史選舉週期重抽下的校準不確定性。
每日資料
各候選人的支持率、區間與勝選機率。
| 日期 | 民主黨 · Robert P. Casey Jr. | 共和黨 · Dave McCormick | 民調／機構 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 支持率 | 80% 區間 | 勝選機率（80% 校準區間） | 支持率 | 80% 區間 | 勝選機率（80% 校準區間） | ||
| 2024-11-04 | 50.96% | 47.62–54.30% | 67.2% (64.0–72.0%) | 49.04% | 45.70–52.38% | 32.8% (28.0–36.0%) | 81 / 32 |
| 2024-11-03 | 50.97% | 47.63–54.32% | 67.4% (64.2–72.3%) | 49.03% | 45.68–52.37% | 32.6% (27.7–35.8%) | 80 / 32 |
| 2024-11-02 | 51.02% | 47.68–54.36% | 68.2% (64.8–73.2%) | 48.98% | 45.64–52.32% | 31.8% (26.8–35.2%) | 77 / 32 |
| 2024-10-31 | 51.07% | 47.72–54.41% | 69.0% (65.5–74.1%) | 48.93% | 45.59–52.28% | 31.0% (25.9–34.5%) | 70 / 31 |
| 2024-10-30 | 51.09% | 47.74–54.43% | 69.2% (65.7–74.5%) | 48.91% | 45.57–52.26% | 30.8% (25.5–34.3%) | 64 / 31 |
| 2024-10-29 | 51.24% | 47.89–54.59% | 71.7% (67.8–77.3%) | 48.76% | 45.41–52.11% | 28.3% (22.7–32.2%) | 59 / 31 |
| 2024-10-28 | 51.29% | 47.94–54.64% | 72.4% (68.4–78.1%) | 48.71% | 45.36–52.06% | 27.6% (21.9–31.6%) | 58 / 31 |
| 2024-10-27 | 51.42% | 48.06–54.78% | 74.4% (70.1–80.3%) | 48.58% | 45.22–51.94% | 25.6% (19.7–29.9%) | 52 / 30 |
| 2024-10-22 | 51.48% | 48.12–54.84% | 75.2% (70.9–81.2%) | 48.52% | 45.16–51.88% | 24.8% (18.8–29.1%) | 51 / 30 |
| 2024-10-20 | 51.54% | 48.19–54.90% | 76.1% (71.7–82.2%) | 48.46% | 45.10–51.81% | 23.9% (17.8–28.3%) | 49 / 30 |
| 2024-10-19 | 51.56% | 48.20–54.92% | 76.3% (71.9–82.4%) | 48.44% | 45.08–51.80% | 23.7% (17.6–28.1%) | 47 / 30 |
| 2024-10-17 | 51.61% | 48.25–54.97% | 77.0% (72.5–83.1%) | 48.39% | 45.03–51.75% | 23.0% (16.9–27.5%) | 46 / 30 |
| 2024-10-15 | 51.75% | 48.38–55.11% | 78.8% (74.1–84.9%) | 48.25% | 44.89–51.62% | 21.2% (15.1–25.9%) | 42 / 30 |
| 2024-10-10 | 51.68% | 48.31–55.05% | 77.9% (73.3–84.0%) | 48.32% | 44.95–51.69% | 22.1% (16.0–26.7%) | 41 / 30 |
| 2024-10-09 | 51.77% | 48.40–55.15% | 79.1% (74.4–85.3%) | 48.23% | 44.85–51.60% | 20.9% (14.7–25.6%) | 38 / 29 |
| 2024-10-08 | 51.75% | 48.37–55.13% | 78.7% (74.1–84.9%) | 48.25% | 44.87–51.63% | 21.3% (15.1–25.9%) | 36 / 28 |
| 2024-10-07 | 51.82% | 48.44–55.20% | 79.7% (75.0–85.9%) | 48.18% | 44.80–51.56% | 20.3% (14.1–25.0%) | 35 / 28 |
| 2024-09-29 | 51.78% | 48.40–55.17% | 79.2% (74.5–85.3%) | 48.22% | 44.83–51.60% | 20.8% (14.7–25.5%) | 32 / 26 |
| 2024-09-28 | 51.78% | 48.38–55.17% | 79.0% (74.4–85.2%) | 48.22% | 44.83–51.62% | 21.0% (14.8–25.6%) | 28 / 22 |
| 2024-09-25 | 51.87% | 48.47–55.27% | 80.2% (75.4–86.3%) | 48.13% | 44.73–51.53% | 19.8% (13.7–24.6%) | 27 / 22 |
| 2024-09-24 | 52.08% | 48.68–55.49% | 82.7% (77.8–88.7%) | 47.92% | 44.51–51.32% | 17.3% (11.3–22.2%) | 25 / 20 |
| 2024-09-23 | 52.01% | 48.60–55.42% | 81.8% (76.9–87.8%) | 47.99% | 44.58–51.40% | 18.2% (12.2–23.1%) | 22 / 18 |
| 2024-09-22 | 52.15% | 48.73–55.57% | 83.3% (78.4–89.3%) | 47.85% | 44.43–51.27% | 16.7% (10.7–21.6%) | 20 / 16 |
| 2024-09-20 | 52.12% | 48.70–55.55% | 83.0% (78.1–89.0%) | 47.88% | 44.45–51.30% | 17.0% (11.0–21.9%) | 19 / 15 |
| 2024-09-19 | 52.12% | 48.69–55.55% | 82.9% (78.0–88.9%) | 47.88% | 44.45–51.31% | 17.1% (11.1–22.0%) | 17 / 13 |
| 2024-09-18 | 52.14% | 48.71–55.57% | 83.1% (78.2–89.1%) | 47.86% | 44.43–51.29% | 16.9% (10.9–21.8%) | 16 / 12 |
| 2024-09-17 | 52.11% | 48.65–55.57% | 82.6% (77.7–88.6%) | 47.89% | 44.43–51.35% | 17.4% (11.4–22.3%) | 13 / 10 |
| 2024-09-16 | 52.40% | 48.91–55.90% | 85.4% (80.5–91.1%) | 47.60% | 44.10–51.09% | 14.6% (8.9–19.5%) | 11 / 9 |
| 2024-09-15 | 52.98% | 49.33–56.62% | 89.3% (84.6–94.3%) | 47.02% | 43.38–50.67% | 10.7% (5.7–15.4%) | 6 / 6 |
| 2024-09-14 | 53.30% | 49.52–57.07% | 90.8% (86.3–95.3%) | 46.70% | 42.93–50.48% | 9.2% (4.7–13.7%) | 4 / 4 |
| 2024-09-08 | 53.64% | 49.81–57.48% | 92.5% (88.3–96.5%) | 46.36% | 42.52–50.19% | 7.5% (3.5–11.7%) | 3 / 3 |
| 2024-09-06 | 54.14% | 49.87–58.40% | 92.9% (88.8–96.8%) | 45.86% | 41.60–50.13% | 7.1% (3.2–11.2%) | 2 / 2 |
整體回測
彙整 2016 至 2024 年所有可比較的選舉。
1.20席參議院席次平均絕對誤差
4/5參議院控制權方向判對
8.60席眾議院席次平均絕對誤差
5/5眾議院控制權方向判對
眾議院席次回測
柱狀顯示民主黨實際席次，圓點顯示預測平均，菱形顯示各選區預測勝方加總的席次。線段為 80% 預測區間。
全國國會選票民調
比較選前 60 日內的全國國會選票民調與實際全國票差。正值代表民主黨領先。
眾議院與參議院民調誤差
比較綜合預測與選前民調平均的誤差。平均絕對誤差越低越好。
參議院逐屆席次結果
控制門檻按各屆副總統所屬政黨計算。
| 年份 | 實際席次 | 選前基準 | 預測席次 | 預測平均 | 80% 區間 | 民主黨控制機率 | 有民調選區 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 48 | 49 | 49 | 50.1 | 44–57 | 42.6%（80% 校準區間 37.3–46.8%；51 席） | 32 |
| 2018 | 47 | 51 | 48 | 47.3 | 44–51 | 9.3%（80% 校準區間 1.6–27.8%；51 席） | 30 |
| 2020 | 50 | 52 | 51 | 51.9 | 47–56 | 76.6%（80% 校準區間 62.3–89.6%；50 席） | 30 |
| 2022 | 51 | 47 | 49 | 49.2 | 46–53 | 42.3%（80% 校準區間 36.9–46.5%；50 席） | 27 |
| 2024 | 47 | 45 | 48 | 46.7 | 44–49 | 1.4%（80% 校準區間 0.0–13.4%；51 席） | 29 |
眾議院逐屆席次結果
控制門檻為 218 席。
| 年份 | 實際席次 | 選前基準 | 預測席次 | 預測平均 | 80% 區間 | 民主黨控制機率 | 有民調選區 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 194 | 203 | 195 | 213.4 | 166–268 | 39.1%（80% 校準區間 31.7–45.0%；218 席） | 62 |
| 2018 | 235 | 204 | 209 | 221.1 | 197–248 | 55.1%（80% 校準區間 52.3–58.6%；218 席） | 139 |
| 2020 | 223 | 228 | 230 | 231.5 | 207–257 | 81.0%（80% 校準區間 65.0–93.1%；218 席） | 85 |
| 2022 | 212 | 226 | 217 | 211.2 | 189–232 | 32.4%（80% 校準區間 21.5–42.1%；218 席） | 70 |
| 2024 | 215 | 225 | 219 | 213.4 | 191–236 | 38.6%（80% 校準區間 30.7–45.0%；218 席） | 65 |