外觀
歷屆選舉
查看各場選舉的預測得票率、推估區間與勝選機率變化。
38.0%DPP · 賴清德 · 勝選機率 63.8%
80% 校準區間 54.0–71.9%
支持率區間 30.5–45.5%
80% 校準區間 54.0–71.9%
支持率區間 30.5–45.5%
34.7%KMT · 侯友宜 · 勝選機率 34.7%
80% 校準區間 27.8–38.6%
支持率區間 27.2–42.3%
80% 校準區間 27.8–38.6%
支持率區間 27.2–42.3%
27.3%TPP · 柯文哲 · 勝選機率 1.6%
80% 校準區間 0.2–7.2%
支持率區間 21.6–32.9%
80% 校準區間 0.2–7.2%
支持率區間 21.6–32.9%
48 / 17納入的民調／機構
預測得票率
折線是以當日可用民調重建的投票日得票率預測，陰影為 80% 區間，點線為最終得票率；校準參數使用全歷史資料，這不是獨立回測。候選人進入民調題目前以 0% 顯示，不使用後來的資料回填。
勝選機率
折線顯示校準後勝選機率；區間反映歷史選舉週期重抽下的校準不確定性。
每日資料
各候選人的支持率、區間與勝選機率。
| 日期 | 距投票日 | DPP · 賴清德 | KMT · 侯友宜 | TPP · 柯文哲 | 民調／機構 | 樣本總數 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 支持率 | 80% 區間 | 勝選機率（95% 誤差） | 支持率 | 80% 區間 | 勝選機率（95% 誤差） | 支持率 | 80% 區間 | 勝選機率（95% 誤差） | ||||
| 2024-01-01 | 12 天 | 38.01% | 30.49–45.55% | 63.8% (54.0–71.9%) | 34.72% | 27.23–42.30% | 34.7% (27.8–38.6%) | 27.27% | 21.60–32.95% | 1.6% (0.2–7.2%) | 48 / 17 | 14,847 |
| 2023-12-31 | 13 天 | 37.69% | 30.15–45.22% | 61.7% (52.6–69.3%) | 34.83% | 27.21–42.52% | 36.4% (30.4–39.4%) | 27.48% | 21.72–33.29% | 1.9% (0.3–7.9%) | 46 / 17 | 13,630 |
| 2023-12-30 | 14 天 | 37.30% | 29.66–44.85% | 58.6% (50.9–64.7%) | 35.21% | 27.58–42.89% | 39.5% (35.0–41.1%) | 27.50% | 21.73–33.25% | 1.9% (0.3–7.9%) | 44 / 17 | 14,391 |
| 2023-12-29 | 15 天 | 36.80% | 29.21–44.52% | 53.5% (48.4–56.8%) | 35.76% | 28.07–43.41% | 44.6% (42.6–44.8%) | 27.45% | 21.69–33.20% | 1.9% (0.3–7.8%) | 42 / 17 | 18,697 |
| 2023-12-28 | 16 天 | 37.91% | 30.30–45.67% | 58.4% (51.8–63.6%) | 35.83% | 28.08–43.72% | 40.7% (36.3–42.5%) | 26.26% | 20.25–32.19% | 1.0% (0.1–5.6%) | 37 / 16 | 10,663 |
| 2023-12-27 | 17 天 | 36.93% | 29.04–44.90% | 51.1% (47.7–52.6%) | 36.51% | 28.55–44.46% | 47.7% (45.9–47.7%) | 26.55% | 20.52–32.52% | 1.3% (0.2–6.4%) | 35 / 16 | 10,221 |
| 2023-12-26 | 18 天 | 37.92% | 29.92–45.94% | 58.2% (51.9–63.2%) | 36.05% | 28.15–44.08% | 41.0% (36.7–42.9%) | 26.03% | 20.08–32.02% | 0.8% (0.1–5.1%) | 33 / 15 | 8,903 |
| 2023-12-25 | 19 天 | 37.43% | 29.46–45.41% | 55.3% (49.9–59.1%) | 36.12% | 28.19–44.05% | 43.5% (40.5–44.2%) | 26.45% | 20.47–32.44% | 1.2% (0.1–6.2%) | 32 / 15 | 7,569 |
| 2023-12-24 | 20 天 | 37.41% | 29.46–45.32% | 54.6% (49.6–58.1%) | 36.23% | 28.26–44.27% | 44.2% (41.5–44.6%) | 26.36% | 20.26–32.47% | 1.2% (0.2–6.3%) | 30 / 15 | 10,489 |
| 2023-12-22 | 22 天 | 37.84% | 29.80–45.83% | 56.6% (50.9–61.0%) | 36.13% | 28.07–44.24% | 42.4% (38.8–43.5%) | 26.03% | 20.02–32.13% | 1.0% (0.1–5.7%) | 29 / 14 | 12,750 |
| 2023-12-21 | 23 天 | 37.95% | 29.77–45.92% | 56.9% (51.0–61.6%) | 36.17% | 28.00–44.32% | 42.0% (38.3–43.3%) | 25.88% | 19.81–32.05% | 1.0% (0.1–5.8%) | 28 / 14 | 11,335 |
| 2023-12-20 | 24 天 | 37.90% | 29.79–46.00% | 54.8% (50.4–58.0%) | 36.74% | 28.39–45.08% | 44.5% (41.7–45.2%) | 25.36% | 19.19–31.50% | 0.7% (0.1–4.6%) | 26 / 14 | 10,456 |
| 2023-12-19 | 25 天 | 37.90% | 29.71–46.09% | 54.5% (50.3–57.5%) | 36.83% | 28.62–45.23% | 44.9% (42.2–45.5%) | 25.27% | 19.19–31.30% | 0.6% (0.1–4.5%) | 25 / 13 | 9,566 |
| 2023-12-17 | 27 天 | 37.94% | 29.80–46.11% | 54.6% (50.4–57.6%) | 36.75% | 28.44–45.07% | 44.8% (42.1–45.4%) | 25.31% | 19.14–31.36% | 0.6% (0.1–4.4%) | 24 / 13 | 8,322 |
| 2023-12-16 | 28 天 | 38.50% | 30.26–46.71% | 58.6% (52.5–63.6%) | 36.43% | 28.08–44.67% | 40.9% (36.3–43.1%) | 25.07% | 18.90–31.27% | 0.6% (0.0–4.3%) | 23 / 13 | 9,844 |
| 2023-12-15 | 29 天 | 39.23% | 30.92–47.53% | 64.3% (55.5–72.0%) | 35.62% | 27.12–43.93% | 35.0% (27.9–39.7%) | 25.15% | 18.96–31.43% | 0.7% (0.1–4.6%) | 21 / 12 | 9,988 |
| 2023-12-14 | 30 天 | 39.10% | 30.80–47.50% | 64.0% (55.1–71.7%) | 35.53% | 27.02–44.04% | 35.2% (28.2–39.7%) | 25.37% | 19.14–31.62% | 0.8% (0.1–5.0%) | 20 / 12 | 8,788 |
| 2023-12-13 | 31 天 | 39.15% | 30.88–47.47% | 65.9% (56.1–74.3%) | 35.15% | 26.68–43.67% | 33.3% (25.6–38.6%) | 25.70% | 19.41–31.90% | 0.8% (0.1–5.1%) | 19 / 12 | 9,322 |
| 2023-12-12 | 32 天 | 38.98% | 30.54–47.31% | 64.6% (55.1–72.7%) | 35.26% | 26.77–43.83% | 34.4% (27.2–38.9%) | 25.76% | 19.47–32.00% | 1.0% (0.1–5.7%) | 18 / 12 | 7,793 |
| 2023-12-11 | 33 天 | 38.78% | 30.26–47.33% | 63.9% (54.4–71.9%) | 35.08% | 26.37–43.78% | 34.8% (27.9–39.0%) | 26.15% | 19.81–32.60% | 1.3% (0.2–6.4%) | 16 / 11 | 5,760 |
| 2023-12-08 | 36 天 | 38.86% | 30.20–47.38% | 62.1% (54.1–68.9%) | 35.69% | 26.96–44.43% | 37.2% (31.0–40.8%) | 25.45% | 19.08–31.89% | 0.8% (0.1–5.0%) | 15 / 11 | 12,009 |
| 2023-12-07 | 37 天 | 38.85% | 30.16–47.52% | 60.8% (53.6–67.0%) | 36.06% | 27.25–44.92% | 38.6% (33.0–41.7%) | 25.09% | 18.69–31.47% | 0.7% (0.1–4.6%) | 14 / 11 | 11,475 |
| 2023-12-02 | 42 天 | 38.09% | 29.40–46.91% | 56.4% (50.7–60.8%) | 36.26% | 27.34–45.13% | 42.5% (39.0–43.6%) | 25.64% | 19.31–32.14% | 1.0% (0.1–5.8%) | 13 / 11 | 11,534 |
| 2023-12-01 | 43 天 | 38.21% | 29.48–46.88% | 59.4% (51.9–65.5%) | 35.63% | 26.69–44.53% | 39.2% (34.3–41.3%) | 26.16% | 19.72–32.62% | 1.4% (0.2–6.7%) | 12 / 10 | 10,266 |
| 2023-11-30 | 44 天 | 38.14% | 29.24–47.02% | 56.7% (51.0–61.2%) | 36.21% | 27.09–45.23% | 42.3% (38.7–43.5%) | 25.65% | 19.07–32.17% | 1.0% (0.1–5.6%) | 10 / 9 | 11,380 |
| 2023-11-28 | 46 天 | 37.92% | 29.13–46.74% | 56.1% (50.2–60.4%) | 36.15% | 27.19–45.09% | 42.6% (39.3–43.4%) | 25.93% | 19.35–32.51% | 1.3% (0.2–6.5%) | 9 / 9 | 10,407 |
| 2023-11-27 | 47 天 | 37.12% | 28.24–45.99% | 51.7% (47.7–53.8%) | 36.56% | 27.61–45.49% | 46.8% (44.9–46.8%) | 26.32% | 19.67–33.01% | 1.6% (0.2–7.1%) | 8 / 8 | 6,240 |
| 2023-11-26 | 48 天 | 37.16% | 28.31–46.13% | 53.0% (47.8–56.2%) | 36.00% | 26.88–45.15% | 44.9% (42.9–44.9%) | 26.84% | 20.24–33.44% | 2.2% (0.4–8.4%) | 6 / 6 | 5,610 |
| 2023-11-25 | 49 天 | 36.22% | 27.25–45.21% | 47.5% (44.7–48.0%) | 36.53% | 27.27–45.82% | 49.7% (45.8–51.5%) | 27.25% | 20.48–33.97% | 2.8% (0.6–9.5%) | 4 / 4 | 3,688 |
| 2023-11-24 | 50 天 | 38.46% | 28.32–48.54% | 60.6% (50.9–68.9%) | 34.87% | 24.67–45.14% | 35.8% (30.3–38.1%) | 26.67% | 18.64–34.67% | 3.6% (0.8–10.9%) | 1 / 1 | 1,193 |