外觀
歷屆選舉
查看各場選舉的綜合支持率、推估區間與勝選機率變化。
40.3%DPP · 賴清德 · 勝選機率 91.3%
95% 模擬誤差 90.9–91.7%
支持率區間 37.7–42.8%
95% 模擬誤差 90.9–91.7%
支持率區間 37.7–42.8%
32.3%KMT · 侯友宜 · 勝選機率 8.7%
95% 模擬誤差 8.3–9.1%
支持率區間 25.2–39.5%
95% 模擬誤差 8.3–9.1%
支持率區間 25.2–39.5%
27.4%TPP · 柯文哲 · 勝選機率 0.0%
95% 模擬誤差 0.0–0.0%
支持率區間 24.7–30.1%
95% 模擬誤差 0.0–0.0%
支持率區間 24.7–30.1%
48 / 17納入的民調／機構
綜合支持率
折線代表當時的綜合支持率，陰影代表 80% 區間，點線代表最終得票率。候選人進入民調題目前以 0% 顯示，不使用後來的資料回填。
勝選機率
勝選機率代表候選人在當時民調條件下領先所有對手的機率，並非預測得票率；誤差棒是 20,000 次模擬比例的 95% 數值誤差，不是額外的民調預測區間。
每日資料
各候選人的支持率、區間與勝選機率。
| 日期 | 距投票日 | DPP · 賴清德 | KMT · 侯友宜 | TPP · 柯文哲 | 民調／機構 | 樣本總數 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 支持率 | 80% 區間 | 勝選機率（95% 誤差） | 支持率 | 80% 區間 | 勝選機率（95% 誤差） | 支持率 | 80% 區間 | 勝選機率（95% 誤差） | ||||
| 2024-01-01 | 12 天 | 40.28% | 37.73–42.83% | 91.3% (90.9–91.7%) | 32.33% | 25.16–39.50% | 8.7% (8.3–9.1%) | 27.39% | 24.68–30.11% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 48 / 17 | 97,972 |
| 2023-12-31 | 13 天 | 40.19% | 37.64–42.74% | 90.3% (89.9–90.8%) | 32.40% | 25.23–39.57% | 9.7% (9.2–10.1%) | 27.41% | 24.69–30.12% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 46 / 17 | 95,134 |
| 2023-12-30 | 14 天 | 40.02% | 37.46–42.59% | 89.3% (88.9–89.8%) | 32.61% | 25.43–39.78% | 10.7% (10.2–11.1%) | 27.37% | 24.65–30.09% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 44 / 17 | 92,740 |
| 2023-12-29 | 15 天 | 39.88% | 37.31–42.46% | 88.7% (88.2–89.1%) | 32.82% | 25.65–40.00% | 11.3% (10.9–11.8%) | 27.29% | 24.57–30.02% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 42 / 17 | 90,207 |
| 2023-12-28 | 16 天 | 40.11% | 37.47–42.75% | 88.3% (87.8–88.7%) | 33.05% | 25.86–40.25% | 11.7% (11.3–12.2%) | 26.83% | 24.09–29.58% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 37 / 16 | 62,471 |
| 2023-12-27 | 17 天 | 39.93% | 37.27–42.58% | 87.3% (86.9–87.8%) | 33.18% | 25.98–40.37% | 12.7% (12.2–13.1%) | 26.90% | 24.15–29.65% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 35 / 16 | 59,657 |
| 2023-12-26 | 18 天 | 40.23% | 37.57–42.90% | 88.9% (88.4–89.3%) | 32.96% | 25.76–40.16% | 11.1% (10.7–11.6%) | 26.81% | 24.06–29.56% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 33 / 15 | 57,537 |
| 2023-12-25 | 19 天 | 40.14% | 37.47–42.81% | 88.3% (87.8–88.7%) | 32.97% | 25.77–40.18% | 11.7% (11.3–12.2%) | 26.89% | 24.13–29.64% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 32 / 15 | 55,919 |
| 2023-12-24 | 20 天 | 40.20% | 37.49–42.90% | 88.4% (88.0–88.9%) | 33.06% | 25.85–40.26% | 11.6% (11.1–12.0%) | 26.75% | 23.99–29.50% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 30 / 15 | 53,772 |
| 2023-12-22 | 22 天 | 40.33% | 37.63–43.03% | 89.1% (88.6–89.5%) | 32.97% | 25.76–40.18% | 10.9% (10.5–11.4%) | 26.70% | 23.94–29.45% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 29 / 14 | 52,701 |
| 2023-12-21 | 23 天 | 40.37% | 37.67–43.06% | 89.1% (88.6–89.5%) | 33.05% | 25.83–40.27% | 10.9% (10.5–11.4%) | 26.58% | 23.82–29.34% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 28 / 14 | 50,667 |
| 2023-12-20 | 24 天 | 40.36% | 37.65–43.08% | 88.2% (87.8–88.7%) | 33.19% | 25.97–40.42% | 11.8% (11.3–12.2%) | 26.44% | 23.67–29.22% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 26 / 14 | 47,610 |
| 2023-12-19 | 25 天 | 40.45% | 37.73–43.17% | 88.8% (88.3–89.2%) | 33.20% | 25.98–40.42% | 11.2% (10.8–11.7%) | 26.35% | 23.59–29.12% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 25 / 13 | 46,322 |
| 2023-12-17 | 27 天 | 40.44% | 37.73–43.15% | 88.6% (88.1–89.0%) | 33.18% | 25.97–40.39% | 11.4% (11.0–11.9%) | 26.38% | 23.62–29.14% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 24 / 13 | 45,098 |
| 2023-12-16 | 28 天 | 40.62% | 37.90–43.35% | 89.8% (89.4–90.2%) | 33.00% | 25.78–40.22% | 10.2% (9.8–10.6%) | 26.38% | 23.61–29.14% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 23 / 13 | 43,848 |
| 2023-12-15 | 29 天 | 40.68% | 37.94–43.42% | 90.6% (90.2–91.0%) | 32.81% | 25.58–40.04% | 9.3% (9.0–9.8%) | 26.51% | 23.72–29.30% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 21 / 12 | 40,634 |
| 2023-12-14 | 30 天 | 40.60% | 37.84–43.35% | 90.2% (89.8–90.6%) | 32.82% | 25.59–40.05% | 9.8% (9.4–10.2%) | 26.58% | 23.80–29.37% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 20 / 12 | 39,334 |
| 2023-12-13 | 31 天 | 40.50% | 37.73–43.26% | 90.2% (89.7–90.6%) | 32.78% | 25.55–40.02% | 9.8% (9.4–10.3%) | 26.72% | 23.93–29.51% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 19 / 12 | 38,246 |
| 2023-12-12 | 32 天 | 40.47% | 37.69–43.25% | 89.8% (89.4–90.2%) | 32.80% | 25.56–40.03% | 10.2% (9.8–10.6%) | 26.74% | 23.95–29.52% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 18 / 12 | 36,574 |
| 2023-12-11 | 33 天 | 40.25% | 37.44–43.07% | 88.9% (88.5–89.3%) | 32.84% | 25.60–40.08% | 11.1% (10.7–11.5%) | 26.91% | 24.11–29.71% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 16 / 11 | 33,942 |
| 2023-12-08 | 36 天 | 40.15% | 37.32–42.98% | 87.8% (87.4–88.3%) | 33.05% | 25.81–40.30% | 12.2% (11.7–12.6%) | 26.80% | 24.00–29.59% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 15 / 11 | 32,867 |
| 2023-12-07 | 37 天 | 40.07% | 37.24–42.90% | 87.6% (87.1–88.0%) | 33.29% | 26.04–40.54% | 12.4% (12.0–12.9%) | 26.64% | 23.82–29.46% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 14 / 11 | 30,853 |
| 2023-12-02 | 42 天 | 39.80% | 37.04–42.57% | 86.0% (85.5–86.4%) | 33.38% | 26.14–40.61% | 14.0% (13.6–14.5%) | 26.82% | 24.03–29.61% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 13 / 11 | 29,602 |
| 2023-12-01 | 43 天 | 39.73% | 36.91–42.55% | 86.5% (86.0–86.9%) | 33.13% | 25.88–40.39% | 13.5% (13.1–14.0%) | 27.14% | 24.34–29.94% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 12 / 10 | 27,199 |
| 2023-11-30 | 44 天 | 39.63% | 36.75–42.52% | 84.5% (84.0–85.0%) | 33.39% | 26.10–40.68% | 15.5% (15.0–16.0%) | 26.98% | 24.13–29.82% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 10 / 9 | 24,158 |
| 2023-11-28 | 46 天 | 39.52% | 36.63–42.41% | 84.2% (83.7–84.7%) | 33.37% | 26.09–40.66% | 15.8% (15.3–16.3%) | 27.10% | 24.26–29.94% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 9 / 9 | 22,807 |
| 2023-11-27 | 47 天 | 38.86% | 35.89–41.83% | 80.0% (79.4–80.5%) | 33.65% | 26.34–40.97% | 20.0% (19.5–20.6%) | 27.49% | 24.62–30.36% | 0.0% (0.0–0.0%) | 8 / 8 | 10,766 |
| 2023-11-26 | 48 天 | 39.05% | 35.92–42.19% | 83.0% (82.5–83.5%) | 33.10% | 25.73–40.47% | 17.0% (16.4–17.5%) | 27.85% | 24.94–30.76% | 0.0% (0.0–0.1%) | 6 / 6 | 8,498 |
| 2023-11-25 | 49 天 | 38.20% | 34.77–41.62% | 75.7% (75.1–76.3%) | 33.64% | 26.14–41.13% | 24.1% (23.6–24.7%) | 28.17% | 25.13–31.20% | 0.1% (0.1–0.2%) | 4 / 4 | 5,516 |
| 2023-11-24 | 50 天 | 40.13% | 34.21–46.05% | 78.6% (78.0–79.1%) | 32.13% | 21.42–42.84% | 20.0% (19.5–20.6%) | 27.74% | 22.13–33.34% | 1.4% (1.3–1.6%) | 1 / 1 | 1,348 |